NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS OF HOPE VI: EVIDENCE FROM BALTIMORE
Executive Summary
In the early 1990s, the HOPE VI initiative emerged as a way to address the severe social and physical problems plaguing high-rise public housing. HOPE VI replaces the high-rises with low-rise, mixed income developments that include homeownership units. The New Urbanism and other theories underlying HOPE VI suggest that the new developments would be more resistant to the damaging pathologies that had become endemic to the high-rise communities.
The purpose of this study was to explore whether the effects of five HOPE VI redevelopments in Baltimore extended to their immediate and surrounding neighborhoods--so called “spillover effects.” These sites are: (1) Pleasant View Gardens; (2) The Townes at the Terraces; (3) Heritage Crossing; (4) Broadway Overlook; and (5) Flag House Courts. Using a mixed-method design and both quantitative and qualitative data, we examined such potential spillover effects as the quality of the physical environment, economic activity, the social environment, crime rates, and image. For the two fully-constructed developments, we used a pre-post comparison, investigating these neighborhoods before, and after, the implementation of the HOPE VI program. For the other three neighborhoods that are in varying stages of completion, we examined both the effect that the transition period between demolition and rebuilding has had on the immediate and adjacent neighborhoods, and whether, in anticipation of HOPE VI funding, there have been any neighborhood effects motivated by the announcement of the funding. We also compared changes in HOPE VI neighborhoods to changes in the city of Baltimore as a whole, to account for external factors operating during the same time period as the HOPE VI program, such as changes in the economic climate and welfare reform.
Key findings include:
- Pleasant View Gardens. The redevelopment of Lafayette Courts to the Pleasant View Gardens has served as a catalyst for neighborhood renewal in minor ways. Consensus exists that the Pleasant View development itself is doing well, and evidence suggests that redevelopment has encouraged new investment in the immediate and adjacent neighborhoods. On the other hand, Douglass Homes, a nearby public housing development, was negatively affected by an influx of relocated Lafayette Courts residents. Merchants in Oldtown Mall lost some of their customer base, but may benefit in the long run from a proposed supermarket to be developed adjacent to the mall. Charles Carroll of Carrollton, an elementary school adjacent to Lafayette Courts, also experienced negative effects, closing in 2001, in part, because of decreased enrollment. City officials, real estate developers, and other experts agree that, in many ways, it is too soon to draw broad conclusions about spillover effects of Pleasant View Gardens. Further examination will likely show that while the redevelopment’s health aids in the area’s renewal, the development will be affected by the adjacent areas more than it affects them.
- The Townes at the Terraces. We did not see the effects of two underlying theories of HOPE VI, New Urbanism and income mixing, on demographic and socioeconomic indicators. The Terraces has not had positive spillover effects on population stabilization or unemployment rates, and has had limited effects on social trust and interaction in the adjacent neighborhoods. An increase in median income in The Terraces and adjacent neighborhoods upholds homeownership theories, as does an increase in the median sales price of residential property. However, property crime rates increased across the area in the late 1990s, in contrast to a decline across Baltimore. Some evidence suggests that the removal of the high-rise Terraces had some influence on the University of Maryland’s decision to cross Martin Luther King Boulevard with a new biotech development.
- Heritage Crossing. The effects of the transition from Murphy Homes to Heritage Crossing under the HOPE VI program appear to be almost solely limited to the 68 percent drop in population between 1990 and 2000 in the census tract encompassing the public housing development. This dramatic decline cannot be accounted for by the relocation of Murphy Homes residents, and exceeds the general population loss in Baltimore. The Heritage Crossing development is physically and psychologically isolated from the surrounding neighborhood. Image and public perception appear to have improved, though the spurt of economic investment in the form of home loans and building permits soon after the HOPE VI announcement returned to previous levels by 2000.
- Broadway Overlook. The location for the new Broadway Overlook housing development is in the heart of the up-and-coming Washington Hill neighborhood, which may encourage residents of the Broadway development to “keep up with the Joneses” by maintaining the same positive trends as their neighbors. It is unique for a HOPE VI project to be built in a neighborhood showing high rates of homeownership, signs of improvement, and low levels of distress.
- Flag House Courts. Flag House Courts is bordered by the distressed Jonestown neighborhood to the north, and Little Italy, an economically strong neighborhood, to the south. The transition from the old development to the new development has been associated with a significant reduction in the poor, black population in the Flag House VicinityFlag House and Jonestown neighborhoods. Most crime fell in all three neighborhoods, but the fear and perception of crime appear to have heightened shortly before demolition, as criminals used the nearly vacant high-rises as hiding places, and bases of operation, and shelter. There was also almost no increased economic activity in Jonestown or Little Italy that could be attributed to the announcement of the Flag House Courts HOPE VI grant. Nonetheless, the image of is difficult to determine. the Flag House VicinityFlag House neighborhood improved slightly’s image improved slightly after the announcement of the HOPE VI development.
Although it is difficult to tease out what neighborhood changes can be attributed to HOPE VI, per se, as distinct from other economic and social forces, findings of this analysis suggest five major factors that affect a development’s chances of positive neighborhood effects: (1) the “footprint” of a development--that is, how far it extends into its surrounding area; (2) location; (3) supportive services; (4) the presence and involvement of institutional players; and (5) resident and community involvement in HOPE VI planning and implementation.
Overall, although the marked improvement in the physical conditions of the public housing developments has not extended to adjacent neighborhoods, these nearby neighborhoods experienced increases in property values and economic activity, and an improved image, and these benefits were plausibly related to the HOPE VI intervention. Whether these positive effects will be sustained, and whether other positive effects emerge as the redevelopments mature, remain to be seen.
